What Trump’s hawkish new administration means for the world. And what it tells us about MAGA

The incoming president’s foreign policy arm may be willing to confront Russia, Iran and China head on

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Donald Trump’s new national security adviser once proposed removing the American “handcuffs” placed on Ukraine’s use of Western long-range missiles.
Mike Waltz was suggesting that Washington should lift its veto on firing the weapons into Russia as a way of forcing an end to the war.
It is an eye-catching hardline stance on Russia that reflects a notably hawkish new foreign policy arm of Mr Trump’s incoming administration.
Indeed Mr Waltz’s views on the Russia-Ukraine war may have softened more recently, but his pick reflects a future administration that may be willing to confront Russia, Iran and China head-on.
Recent Trump appointments – including Marco Rubio as Secretary of State and Elise Stefanik as ambassador to the UN – also raise questions about the centre of power inside the Make America Great Again agenda.
Both Mr Waltz and Mr Rubio were both initially staunch supporters of US military support for Ukraine.
The longer Kyiv’s fight against the Russian invasion dragged on, they have become sceptical of the steady flow of aid and finances being sent east from Washington.
Neither advocate a complete withdrawal of US military support for Ukraine as Mr Trump attempts to negotiate a swift end to the fighting, which he promised on the campaign trail.
But they will certainly push for Washington’s European Nato allies to shoulder more of the burden and invest in defence.
Despite being seen as a “Trump surrogate” Mr Rubio was the Republican co-sponsor of legislation preventing any US president unilaterally withdrawing from Nato.
Mr Trump has been vague on how he proposes to end the war in Ukraine.
Under the guidance of Mr Waltz, it is unlikely the president-elect will adopt Kyiv’s strategy of Nato membership as the ultimate security guarantee to prevent further Russian attacks.
When advocating for the US lifting its ban on Ukraine using missiles in Russia, Mr Waltz said last year, he predicted that maximum strength on Russia would lead to Vladimir Putin’s “economy and his war machine” drying up.
“I think that will get Putin to the table,” he said.
Given their public statements, both Mr Waltz and Mr Rubio would likely back a two-pronged strategy to end the fighting reportedly being mulled over by the Trump camp.
It would involve European soldiers policing an 800-mile-long demilitarised zone, while Washington contributed weapons to Ukraine to deter attacks from Russia.
Mr Trump’s election victory has been a cause for celebration in Israel.
Benjamin Natanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, has spoken to the president-elect at least three times since his election victory, saying they “see eye to eye on the Iranian threat”.
And some hardline figures in the Jewish State have suggested it might usher in an era of acceptance at the annexation of parts of the West Bank.
An existing commitment to prevent Israeli annexation – agreed between the US and UAE during Mr Trump’s first term – expires in 2024.
Mr Rubio is likely to be much more supportive of Israel’s war on Hamas in Gaza than the  Biden administration. Last year, he said the Jewish state had “no choice but to seek the complete eradication of Hamas in Gaza”.
He later said it was America’s role to re-supply Israel with the weapons needed to carry out the task.
Mr Rubio has also said a ceasefire would only prolong the war in Gaza by allowing Hamas to prepare for a new phase in the conflict.
Mr Waltz would also likely advise Mr Trump to give Israel more room in any future attacks against Iran.
Mr Biden reportedly stopped Mr Natanyahu from attacking Iranian nuclear and oil facilities in response to a 180-missile barrage from the Islamic Republic.
But Mr Waltz said Israel should have hit back against Kharg Island, a key hub for Iran’s oil exports, and its nuclear facilities at Natanz.
The new national security adviser publicly questioned whether Mr Biden had pressured Israel “once again to do less than it should”.
Even before the war in Gaza, Mr Waltz was a supporter of the US allowing Israel to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Mr Trump’s appointment of Ms Stefanik, a Republican congresswoman, as the US ambassador to the United States also suggests there will be strong backing for Israel.
Ms Stefanik has accused the UN of being plagued by “anti-Semitic rot” and suggested blocking funding for the UN’s agency for Palestinian refugees.
She campaigned against anti-Semitism on university campuses in the US and for the sacking of several Ivy League presidents.
Both Mr Waltz and Mr Rubio are considered hawks on China, with the latter having been sanctioned twice by Beijing for his opposition.
Their advice to Mr Trump will likely be similar: fix the Middle East and end Russia’s war on Ukraine to begin preparations for hostilities with China.
Beijing is widely expected to make an attempt – possibly militarily – to capture US ally Taiwan in the coming years.
Mr Waltz has criticised the American military for not building an army that could prevent a Chinese attack on the island nation.
As well as modernising the US armed forces, the former Green Beret wrote in his book, “Hard Truths: Think and Lead Like a Green Beret”, published earlier this year, that Washington should start arming Taiwan’s military.
Mr Rubio would likely attempt to usher in a series of non-military policies to contain China, including sanctions against Beijing for its genocide against the Uyghur minority.
He has previously advocated investments in American industry in response to competition from China and called for an end to tax breaks on electric vehicles made with Chinese batteries.
Sanctions against China for its support of Russia’s war on Ukraine could also be extended.
His work on what is described as the “China Threat” theory extends back over a decade.
He has also co-sponsored legislation that calls for an international response, by force if necessary, to any Chinese attempt to seize Taiwan.
“Getting Rubio is worse for China than getting Pompeo again,” a former Trump administration official told CNN.
Donald Trump Jr, the son of the president-elect, recently said war hawks would not be appointed to the next Republican administration.
The America First policy of Mr Trump has been key to securing the support of voters, who often believe Washington focuses more of its energies overseas instead of on domestic problems.
Mr Rubio was seen as one of the “less MAGA” options as Washington’s top diplomat, an ally to Mr Trump told NBC News.
Despite backing many of Mr Trump’s positions on Ukraine, Israel and China, he is more outward looking on foreign policy than the president-elect.
“While Marco is a little more hawkish than the incoming president and vice-president, he’s actually not as far away from them as many people might assume at first blush,” another Trump ally told the broadcaster.
“He’s become far more aligned with the president on issues regarding tariffs. He has a similar stand on the China issue, and he even voted against the last round of Ukraine funding.”
And also while being a supporter of Mr Trump, Mr Waltz has been a long-time government adviser, suggesting he is more conventional than other MAGA candidates.
With two wars and the ever-growing threat of China on his plate, Mr Trump’s picks suggest he may be trying to avoid any embarrassing foreign policy gaffe at the start of his term, as Mr Biden did with the US withdrawal from Afghanistan.
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